Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: An Open Source Analysis

摘要

In The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, President George W. Bush singled out the Islamic Republic of Iran as perhaps the greatest challenge facing the United States today. Iran is specifically identified as a direct obstacle to accomplishing a majority of the Nation's strategic objectives. Among these are preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), promoting freedom by ending the rule of tyrannical regimes, denying terrorists state-sponsored support and sanctuary, and defusing regional conflicts. Despite, and in many instances because of, the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, perpetual conflicts on every continent, and the battle with terrorist organizations in every corner of the globe, the Iranian government has positioned itself to become the focus of the world's collective attention. Translating the strategic objectives outlined by the President into effective operational plans requires carefully studying the enemy and determining his centers of gravity (COG). The availability of accurate, relevant intelligence is a key element to correctly identifying a COG, which is a 'source of moral or physical strength, power, or resistance.' Knowledge of the enemy's culture, history, sociopolitical and economic infrastructures, and leadership is as important in COG determination as knowing his military capabilities and force disposition. After the storming of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran on November 4, 1979, and the hostage crisis that lasted 444 days, access to information on the current political, military, and social structures within Iran has been severely limited, complicating the task of identifying COGs. By analyzing only open source material, (official statements, press releases, interviews, Internet-published documents, testimonies from exiled dissident groups and defectors), it is evident that the key center of gravity in Iran is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or Sepah-e Pasdaran.