Effect of Activation Policies on Accession and Continuation in the Army Reserve Components: The Annualized Reserve Component Activation Cost of Leaving Model

摘要

This paper examines how policies on mobilization, personnel management, and compensation affect the decision to join the Army Reserve Components and the decision to continue in service. We derive and estimate a behavioral model of these decisions, which may be employed to predict the manpower consequences of alternative policies. Our results indicate that while the great majority of the population of young men is disinclined to serve in a mobilized condition, an important minority will perceive mobilizations positively. Accessions and continuation rates are sensitive to the frequency and duration of active duty. Plausible increases in expected active duty will result in relatively small reductions in continuation rates. Pay and bonuses have the capacity to reverse these losses. By contrast, accession rates will increase with reasonable increases in demand for active-duty time above current levels.