Operational Risk Management of Fatigue Effects II

摘要

This report describes our second attempt to use a quantitative, applied model of fatigue and well-accepted fatigue countermeasures in the context of operational risk management (ORM). The report discusses ORM in terms of the identification of fatigue hazards, assessment of fatigue risks, analysis of fatigue-risk control measures, possible fatigue-risk control decisions, implementation of fatigue risk controls, and the supervision and review of the fatigue ORM process. It builds upon and extends a previous fatigue ORM effort (2005) by combining the occurrence of five specific fatigue indicators with fatigue model predictions of cognitive performance effectiveness (PE). The five indicators were the amount of sleep in the last 24 hours, the cumulative sleep debt, the number of hours awake since the last major sleep period, time of day, and the amount of jet lag or shift lag. In the standard Air Force ORM method, the risk associated with a potential mishap is measured in terms of the probability that a mishap will occur and the potential severity of that mishap. The Fatigue-Performance Assessment System software should automate this process in such a manner as to augment other, required AF ORM documents.