SCIPR: A Computational Model to Simulate Cultural Identities for Predicting Reactions to Events

摘要

Today's military missions are not against other nation-states. Rather, they are against irregular forces engaged in terrorist or insurgent activities. A large part of waging successful counter-insurgency campaigns involves reducing or eliminating local support for the insurgents by convincing people that it is in not in their interest to support or join an insurgency. The Simulation of Cultural Identities for Prediction of Reactions (SCIPR) tool is designed to help military planners answer the question: 'How will a particular course of action (COA) or sequence of events affect the attitudes or actions of a particular population' At the core of SCIPR is an agent based model where agents, in response to events, change their affiliations and their attitudes based on the principles of social identity theory (Tajfel, 1978) and Social Influence Theory (Tajfel & Turner, 1979). This paper describes the development of the SCIPR model and its use by military planners.