Individualized Biomathematical Modeling of Fatigue and Performance; Final rept. 1 Jan 2005-29 Feb 2008

摘要

Fatigue from sleep loss and circadian misalignment jeopardizes the cognitive performance and safety of individuals during sustained Air Force operations. Mathematical models of fatigue and performance provide a useful tool for the prediction of cognitive impairment resulting from sleep loss and circadian disruption. However, currently available models do not accurately predict the effects of chronic sleep restriction, and do not make reliable predictions at the level of persons or small teams. In this project, a new model for the sleep/wake homeostatic regulation of fatigue was developed to improve predictions of performance deficits under conditions of chronic sleep loss. Furthermore, Bayesian forecasting was implemented to predict performance responses to sleep loss and circadian displacement for individuals. This project resulted in significant advances in fatigue and performance modeling, addressing the Air Force's need to understand and help mitigate the effects of fatigue on cognitive capability.