Probability Prediction of a Nation's Internal Conflict Based on Instability; Master's thesis

摘要

Since the end of cold war, predicting a nation state's instability has been a challenging national security issue for the United States. This thesis presents several methods to predict the conflict potential for failed nation states by comparing their social, economic, political, and military statistics with those in the past. This study uses the Brier scoring rule to evaluate the performances of these probability prediction methods. The study provides insights into situations where one method expects to outperform the others.