Are the Guerrillas Gone. A Historical Political Economy and Social Analysis of the Rise and Demise of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias Colombianas (FARC), 1964-2010

摘要

This thesis looks at how the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) was able to survive and control significant parts of Colombia until relatively recently. It also explains the decline of the FARC as a significant insurgency (and as one of the last, if not the last significant guerrilla organization in the region). While a historical political economy and social analysis of the rise and demise of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias Colombianas (FARC) between 1964 and 2010 tells us a great deal about the modern nation-state of Colombia, we also ask what the history and contemporary character of Colombia tells us about the rise and fall of the FARC. More specifically, what are the future prospects for the FARC. Are the guerrillas gone. Furthermore, what are the implications of the decline of the FARC for Colombian politics. Finally, what are the Counterinsurgency (COIN) and other policy lessons, for Colombia and beyond, which we can derive from a thorough assessment of the rise and apparent demise of the FARC as a major guerrilla organization. We conclude that the dramatic weakening of the FARC in Colombia is part of a wider trend in the region. Despite the continued presence of social inequality and uneven economic development, the general opening of the political process in Colombia and elsewhere combined with the success of various counterinsurgency campaigns and/or the self-destruction of some insurgencies marks the dawn of a new era. Colombia is ultimately an example of the fact that major insurgency and counterinsurgency operations may have passed permanently from the Latin American stage.