Predictive Modeling of Marine Mammal Density from Existing Survey Data and Model Validation Using Upcoming Surveys

摘要

To meet the information needs of the Navy and other users of the marine environment, cetacean density is modeled as a continuous function of oceanographic variables for 12 species in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) and 15 species in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) based on line- transect surveys conducted from 1986 to 2003. Models are validated with new survey data from 2005 and 2006. To evaluate effects on models, different modeling approaches, different sample scales, different interpolation, methods, and different sources of habitat information were exploded. The effect of seasonal changes in cetacean density was also investigated. Final models for all years were incorporated into a software system that will allow users to estimate density for all cetaceans in any user-defined area within the CCE and ETP study areas. Stratified density estimates are also included in the software system for those species for which density modeling was not possible. Our models and associated software will greatly improve the ability to estimate the density of cetaceans within these study areas.