Application of Adaptive CERs to the Korea Helicopter Project

摘要

This thesis develops new models to estimate the cost for a defense acquisition project, namely the Korean Helicopter Program (KHP). The thesis constructs various cost estimating models based on the traditional Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method and the Adaptive Cost Estimating Relationships (CER), which was introduced in June 2008. This new methodology is used to improve the uncertainty of OLS as shown in the differences between actual data and predicted values. In particular, the new (Adaptive) CER method uses three ways of estimation to diminish the errors; a priori, piece-wise, and X-distance methods. Among these three approaches, this thesis deals with the priori method which assigns weights to individual data points. By comparing the OLS and the weighted methods, improvements in the cost estimates can be achieved. In addition, this thesis provided robust cost estimates for the KHP.