Decision Analysis in the U.S. Army's Capabilties Needs Analysis: Applications of Decision Analysis Methods to Capabilities Resource Allocation and Capabilities Development Decisions.

摘要

The application of multi-attribute decision analysis in the Army s Capabilities Needs Analysis (CNA) is described. The CNA s two primary purposes require trade-offs and prioritization of more than 1700 program capabilities and 800 capability gap alternatives to provide Capabilities Based Assessment (CBA) recommendations across more than 20 proponents to inform Army planning and programming processes for Program Objective Memorandum (POM) development. The paper expounds upon: the objective hierarchy and value model hierarchy used to analyze multiple conflicting objectives; the development of an additive value model to recommend highest valued alternatives including selection of measures and development of value functions and their scales; the use of a modified Delphi method to refine the analysis results; and the implementation of an open architecture web-based tool to collect and analyze data and socialize results. To date, results of the value model implementation and prioritizations achieved acceptance across decision makers and stakeholders. Detailed sensitivity analysis and analysis of implementation of the mathematic model indicate additional refinement is required to improve preference precision and wide acceptance in the community of practice.