Somalia's Endless Transition: Breaking the Deadlock (Strategic Forum, Number 257, June 2010)

摘要

Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was given a second lease on life in January 2009, after successful peace negotiations in Djibouti produced new TFG leadership and yielded substantial international backing. However, the TFG remains weak and has yet to develop new political alliances or military capabilities that provide traction against Islamist insurgent groups. The insurgents themselves -- including al Shabab and Hizbul Islamia -- are also weak and internally divided. Local and international efforts to end the ongoing stalemate in Somalia have been frustrated, resulting in diverging strategic prescriptions for the way ahead. On the one hand, the TFG has proposed a military offensive to gain control over a larger swath of Mogadishu. On the other hand, the inability of foreign military and governance support to advance the transition have led some analysts to argue for a strategy of 'constructive disengagement.' A detailed assessment of the current situation reveals opportunities for the TFG and its international supporters to drive additional wedges between the insurgent groups, degrade their capabilities, and extend TFG control in Mogadishu and other parts of south-central Somalia. Rather than disengaging or rushing toward military action, this requires international pressure on the TFG to engage in political deal-making that co-opts key subclans and elite actors, and lays the groundwork for effective security operations at a later stage.