Effects-Based Operations: Useful or Useless

摘要

Recent developments in the Joint arena have encouraged Joint Staffs to 'shelve' the EBO planning concept. This may well prove to be a premature decision. Proper analysis could reveal the utility of Effects-Based Operations (EBO) planning at the operational level. The application of Effects-Based Operations in the Joint planning process requires the redefining and resolution of conceptual terms and improvements in current prediction models. This paper argues that despite some confusion to date, future work to redefine and resolve EBO conceptual terms and the promised technological improvements to decision support models will prove that effects-based thinking could provide operational planners and commanders with a valuable consequence identification tool. It further argues that System of Systems Analysis (SoSA) is beneficial in helping to identify the linkages between centers of gravity and critical vulnerabilities, and the consequences of actions taken against those linkages. Finally, this paper draws conclusions on the validity of EBO and makes recommendations on the direction the American military should proceed with regard to EBO as an operational planning tool.