Proposed New Storm Surge Scale

摘要

The high storm surges of Hurricane Katrina (2005), Rita (2005), and Ike (2008) demonstrate that other forcing factors besides maximum sustained winds require attention. Indeed, the National Hurricane Center recently removed surge estimates from the Saffir-Simpson scale, since it does not incorporate storm size, bathymetry variation, translation speed, and other factors. This paper proposes a new scale which includes combined factors. An alternate scale based on Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) is also presented. Additionally, the eastward displacement of 5-ft and 10-ft surge inundation based on these combined factors is computed. The key concept is that coastal regions need to be defined by 'bathymetry zones' which identify their vulnerability by shallow water proximity and the extent of the continental shelf. Other factors (such as storm size and speed) provide minor adjustment to surge estimates. This work has resulted in tables and plots which can theoretically be used in an operational setting, and also clarify surge forcing factors.