Questions of Balance: The Shifting Cross-Strait Balance and Implications for the U.S

摘要

For about 20 years, China has been embarked on process of military modernization intended to transform the People's Liberation Army (PLA) from a conscript-based mass 'army of rifles and millet' to a force capable of effective operations on the contemporary battlefield. By any measure, the results have been impressive. While it is important not to overstate its progress-the PLA after all lacks any experience in modern warfare, its commanders unproven, its doctrine untested-China's military has steadily improved more or less across the board. The result today is a cross-Strait military balance that is tilting increasingly in Beijing's favor. The lion's share of the wide-ranging and diverse improvements in the PLA's capabilities appear to have one element in common: they enhance China's ability to take offensive action against Taiwan while deterring, slowing, or blunting U.S. power projection into the East Asian littoral. Among these new Chinese capabilities are two possessing a synergy that presents a serious and growing challenge to Taiwan's defense even with the help of the United States: these are China's growing arsenal of surface-to-surface missiles and its increasingly modern air force.