Cascading Air Power Effects Simulation (CAPES)

摘要

This research focused on modeling the behavior of specific dissident groups. In particular, it focused on explaining and forecasting sustained campaigns of dissdent violence by these groups. We ask: which variables should we monitor in terms of anticipating when groups will turn to campaigns of violence. We sought to specify models which examined the interactions of groups, governments, and the mass populace within various environmental contexts. To meet this objective, new data was collected on the behavior of groups and governments using autmated natural language processing techniques. New data on the attitudes of the masses and Arabic mass media were also collected using similar techniques. Using this data, we specified econometric models to explain and forecast the behavior of groups of interest. Each group was modeled on its own but each model contained similar sets of variables. The groups of interest studied were the Tamil Tigers, Moro Islamic Liberation Front, Bangladesh Chhatra League, the People's War Group in India, the Free Papua Movement in Indonesia, Hamas, Al Aqsa, Hezbollah, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.