Centers of Stability Analysis - The Missing Framework in Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment Doctrine

摘要

Joint force commanders (JFC) are responsible for military stability operations in all phases of joint operations. This requires knowledge of what host nation institutions to include social, government, economic and diplomatic, among others, are the source of power. These institutions may be strong or weak. In order for the JFC to apply the proper military power to reinforce strong and build up weak institutions, a careful analysis of these institutions should be conducted in phase zero. PMESII analysis is the structure from which to build knowledge of the interconnectedness of these institutions. Currently, the joint intelligence preparation of the operational environment (JIPOE) doctrine does not have a framework to consider the stability centers of gravity (COG). This paper describes the current scope of phase zero stability operations and JIPOE analysis. It then explains the importance of objectives, PMESII analysis, and COG analysis in combat operations, defining these items in terms of an enemy. It explains how the threat-based analysis does not work for stability operations with specific stability objectives. Finally, it proposes a new structure, centers of stability analysis, that runs concurrent with the COG analysis that uses PMESII to provide the commander valuable insights into the host nation to support JFC decision-making.