Measuring What Right Looks Like: A System in Developing Metrics for Tactical Level Units

摘要

Since the United States' involvement in Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, thousands of U.S. service members have been lost and millions of man- hours spent on patrols, cordon and searches, and killing or capturing high value targets (HVTs). Billions of dollars from Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP) have been spent on humanitarian aid projects. Despite this investment, outcomes remain vague. This thesis devises a system for employment by tactical units to develop metrics that determine outcomes in nation assistance. It begins by defining terms and models useful for metric development in nation assistance: Rational Actor Theory, Dr. McCormick's Diamond Model, The Logic Model, and Correlation versus Causation. The thesis then uses historical examples of metrics from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Next, data analysis of nation assistance operations is reviewed. Difficulties and shortcomings in these historical examples and methods are highlighted. Finally, the thesis covers the Failed State Index that forms the base of the system that develops metrics that determine outcomes. The Tactical Outcome Assessment, was developed by operationalizing the Failed State Index for use by tactical units. The Tactical Outcome Assessment is the system that tactical units can employ to develop metrics that determine outcomes in nation assistance.