Impact of Long-Run CRAF Activation Risk on International Routes.

摘要

This research used publicly available data, collected by the U.S. Department of Transportation, on international flights from specific U.S. airports. In addition CRAF commitment data for each airline was compiled from Air Mobility Command. The aggregation of this data was used to create a model to predict risk scores based on the amount of aircraft committed to the CRAF and the type of aircraft being flown on specific routes. This risk score was then compared to variables such as market share, load factor and foreign competition to determine if a positive or negative relationship between the variables existed. The analysis of the data shows that there were U.S. airlines that could be considered at significant risk if CRAF was activated. The study also highlighted certain strategic routes that are highly valuable to specific U.S. airlines that could cause economic hardships if lost due to activation.