Distracted Antagonists, Wary Partners: China and India Assess their Security Relations

摘要

This study evaluates the major sources of tension and cooperation between India and China, and analyzes how leading security specialists and policymakers in the two countries see future trends in their relations. The five major issues that are the focus of tension between the two countries are as follows: the Pakistan factor in India-China relations, the India-China border dispute, the Dalai Lama and Tibetans in exile, economic relations, and military modernization and China's increasing presence in the Indian Ocean Region. China's close relations with Pakistan remain the greatest source of tension in India-China relations, and whether Pakistan can maintain stability will be a major factor shaping India-China relations in the next decade. Since 1988 India and China have made efforts to stabilize their border dispute, which have somewhat eased a dangerous flashpoint in their relationship. China will almost certainly try to install its own candidate to succeed the Dalai Lama after his death, which will increase tensions with India. But experts on both sides believe that this will not spark a military conflict. Chinese and Indian security specialists both fear long-term erosion of their country's strategic position as a result of the other country's buildup of border deployments, conventional capabilities, and strategic forces. Indian analysts are increasingly concerned about the future presence of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the IOR, and are developing responses. The trends in relations between Beijing and Delhi--both their tensions and their incentives to restrain them--present the United States with important opportunities and challenges for promoting its security interests in the region.