AN EXAMINATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE FORECAST ERRORS USING PROBABILITY ELLIPSES

摘要

The fact that tropical cyclones move in erratic, apparently unpredictable paths has been recognised by navigators and meteorologists for over half a century. The advent of the International ship reporting system late in the 19th century and aircraft reconnaissance during World War II have created advancements in the tracking of these storms;concurrently, improvements have been made in forecasting storm movement. No presently known technique, however. Yields the consistent desired degree of accuracy.nResearch currently being conducted indicates that the problem of forecasting storm move¬ment is so complex that it may require many years of research and large expenditures before "pin point" accuracy may be expected in the forecasts.