Approximate Confidence Limits for the Reliability of Series and Parallel Systems

摘要

A complex mechanism, e. g., a missile, can be built up from a number of different types of components, where the reliability of each of the components has been estimated by means of separate tests on each of the components. This Memorandum gives a method for combining such data to determine approximate confidence limits for the reliability of the complete mechanism. More precisely, a method of determining approximate confidence limits for the reliability of series, parallel, and series-parallel systems is given, based on observed failures of the individual components. It is assumed that the failures are independent, and that failures of a given component follow a binomial distribution with unknown parameter, the component reliability. The large-sample properties of the likelihood-ratio test are then used to construct the appropriate confidence limits for the system reliability. (Author)