ON THE INDEPENDENCE OF YEARLY WATER INPUTS IN DAMS

摘要

This paper considers the assumption in Moran's theory that the yearly water inputs into a reservoir are independently distributed. To test this hypothesis, two models are constructed for the annual discharges of 17 Australian rivers. The first, a Markov process with normal residuals, leads to the tentative conclusion that discharges from most of the rivers can only approximately be regarded as serially independent. From the second model, a simple Markov chain, it is shown that for runs of from 58 to 72 years, no reliable conclusion can be drawn.