The Evaluation of Techniques and Devices as Applied to Problem Solving

摘要

The problem of forecasting technological change is investigated. Machines and computer programs having 'problem solving' capabilities are examined to determine their usefulness in aiding or replacing the human forecaster. The literature on human problem solving was also reviewed. The following conclusions were reached: (1) the nature of the forecasting problem precludes the use of computer-type problem solvers developed to date, and (2) the application of information science techniques, namely: descriptors representing technological concepts, the forces acting to change the technology and the laws governing the change, appear to offer the most promise in assisting the human forecaster. Accordingly, a quasimathematical model was developed using matrix notation to describe a technology. An example of a forecast of computer technology made several years ago is included. (Author)