Establishment and Maintenance of Communications Satellite Systems (Single Launches)

摘要

A theoretical analysis is presented of the number of launches that are required to establish and maintain a satellite communication system. A simple model is used to represent the process in that launches are assumed to take place with a certain a priori probability whilst the satellites have an exponential probability distribution of lifetimes. Graphs and equations are given for the various probability distributions of the system during the establishment and maintenance phases of the system and the effect of the time interval between launches is also examined by using a Markov chain representation of the system. It is noted that many of the probability distributions are well represented by a Gaussian distribution. The results quite clearly indicate the manner in which the number of launches, and hence the cost, depend critically upon the launch success probability and the ratio of the launch interval to the satellite mean lifetime. (Author)