TIMELINESS AND ACCURACY IN A SEQUENTIAL DECISION MAKING TASK

摘要

One objective of the CCHMAWD SYSTEMS Task is to provide research information by which decision making and information assimilation from displays may be facilitated. The present publication reports on an experiment conducted to investigate the amount of intelligence information which decision makers Judge sufficient for action and to relate these Judgments to the accuracy and timeliness of the decisions made. In a series of simulated military situations involving threat evaluation, three practice problems and nine experimental problems were generated. Slides shoving 4, 6, or 8 successive aggressor force moves toward three friendly units were shown to 60 enlisted men each of whom was required to give an interim Judgment as well as a final decision as to enemy attack intent. Analysis of results showed large individual differences in Judgments of confidence and sufficiency. Tendency to Judge Information insufficient for taking action was significantly greater when lesser amounts of information were provided. For final decisions, as more informa¬tion was provided, accuracy of performance increased from 46% to 81% and Judgments of confidence increased from 52% to 68%. Findings strongly suggest that along with techniques to enhance the accuracy of decisions, effective techniques are needed to enhance confidence in those decisions thereby increasing timeliness with which accurate decisions are reached.