A Monte Carlo PERT Analysis System Utilizing the Graphic Display of an IBM 360 Computer

摘要

A system for PERT analysis using Monte Carlo methods to estimate project completion times was designed using a 2250 Display Unit operating on an IBM 360/67 computer. The user enters the PERT network and the distributions of activity times by using the light pen on the 2250 Display Unit. After the computer performs the analysis, the probability of being on the critical path is shown for each arc in the network and a histogram of project completion times is displayed. The user may then modify the network and run another analysis. A discussion of the difference between this Monte Carlo PERT analysis and the usual PERT analysis and details of the implementation is included, along with operating instructions for the program. A user with no programming experience on the 2250 Display Unit can utilize the program by following the operating instructions. (Author)