Probability of Rescue Success of Emergency Return Of Spacecraft

摘要

The problem of successful emergency return of spacecraft or escape capsule from low earth orbit is investigated by combining the orbital waiting characteristics of the spacecraft and the capabilities of surface recovery forces. The analysis of return probability of spacecraft to multiple recovery areas, including the factors of local time constraints and redundant access, is summarized. The probability of successful rescue is developed by matching of two independents: the return from orbit by the spacecraft and the search and rescue by aircraft. Two retrieval methods are considered: water pickup and air snatch. The method of analysis and information presented have broad applicability in program planning and conceptual studies of future manned space systems. Sample results of typical applications are included. (Author)