A Conceptual Cost Model for Uncertainty Parameters Affecting Negotiated, Sole-Source Development Contracts.

摘要

Attention was placed on cost growths as related to the acquisition of weapons systems by the military services. Uncertainties exist relative to program costs, delivery dates, and product reliability. The purpose of this study is to construct a model which will assist in coping with uncertainties affecting cost. Research and development procurement is unique. A goal is purchased, not a hardware item. Vague specifications may cause contract costing problems. The weapons acquisition process encompasses concept formulation, contract definition, engineering development, and production and operation. As a scientific concept traverses the continuum from concept formulation to production, uncertainties are reduced. For this study, uncertainty cannot be distinguished from risk. Uncertainty may be classified as either anticipated for unanticipated. Each of these is classified as either exogenous or endogenous. Uncertainty is the absence of information, which may be though of as a commodity. In this capacity, information may be described and measured. Information gleaned from the internal and external environments will permit the reduction of uncertainty. The military services have attempted to cope with uncertainty by the use of incentives and contractual arrangements. The relationship between the entropy, information, uncertainty, and cost parameters enables a conceptual cost model to be developed. Entropy is a measure of information in a system. The term refers to magnitude and not meaning. Informational efficacy relates to the meaning of a message. One result of the model is the derived requirement for a total economic cost approach to weapons acquisition.