The Policy Relevance of Models in World Politics.

摘要

This paper evaluates the policy relevance of models according to two criteria: (1) the degree to which policy makers may perceive they have control over predictors in the model; and (2) the degree of confidence policy makers may have in the model's implications. An evaluation is made of various models applicable in world politics from the perspective of their policy relevance. These include: game theory models and experimental games, man-machine simulation models, aggregate data models, and computer simulation models and information systems.