Bayesian Reliability Demonstration: Phase II. Development of a Priori Distribution.

摘要

The final report is a result of a study performed as the second phase of a three phase effort to develop Bayesian Reliability Demonstration Tests (BRDT). The objectives of this,the second phase,were: Fit additional prior distributions;Develop a preliminary format for BRDT;Test the receptiveness to BRDT;Study methods of modifying prior distributions in the face of new data;Study the possible application of empirical Bayes methods to RDT. It turns out that the inverted gamma distribution remains a good choice for a prior distribution,the Bayes tests are economical and easily implemented and tabulated,the Industry/Government interest in such cases is high,and finally,the linear model is a plausible model for modifying prior distributions. (Author)