Resource-Constrained Spatial Hot Spot Identification

摘要

A significant challenge facing policy decision makers tasked with combating crime, terrorism, insurgent activity, or public health risks is the scarcity of resources that can be applied to address these problems. In order to allocate limited resources, a common practice is to identify areas where the problems are more pronounced and then direct resources toward those focus areas. When the historical instances of the problem may be represented geographically, spatial analysis tools can be used to identify clusters of concentrated activity against which resources may be deployed. In the extensive body of research addressing the use of spatial analysis, the term hot spot has been adopted to indicate areas where there exists a greater-than-average number of historical or anticipated problem events. This technical report describes a generalized version of the actionable hot spot (AHS) methodology. Any decision maker who is faced with deploying scarce resources to geographic areas where certain types of undesirable activity or phenomena occur may find this approach useful. This approach is not intended to replace any existing spatial analysis tools but rather to augment them with the ability to conduct analysis where known constraints exist. To demonstrate the diversity of public policy areas under which this approach may be used, this report also provides three example applications: one in domestic health care delivery (colon cancer screening in a state located in the western part of the United States), one in law enforcement (crime in a major metropolitan area), and one in the maritime domain with national security implications (piracy in the Gulf of Aden).