SEER II: A New Damage Assessment Fallout Model

摘要

The purposes of the research are to develop a simplified fallout computational system for use in damage-assessment studies where very large numbers of weapons are used, and to develop a statistical procedure to relate wind variability to fallout pattern variability. The basic requirements of the simplified fallout computational system are that it simulate DELFIC fallout exposure rate contours and DELFIC accumulated exposure doses anywhere within the areas of significant fallout for identical input winds and weapon yield, and that the computer time for exercising the simplified fallout computational system be minimal. The wind variability to be considered was limited to the statistical probability of observing a given vertical wind profile over a given geographical location of any instant in time. Because the original simplified fallout computational system that was developed, Simplified Estimation of Exposure to Radiation (SEER), could not simulate DELFIC output for severly sheared winds, a new model, SEER II, was developed with this capability. The computer computation time required by SEER II on the CDC 6400 computer is approximately 3 seconds for weapon yields in the low kiloton range and 6 seconds for weapon yields in the 10 megaton range per 1200 grid points, which is approximately one-fiftieth to one one-hundredth of the computation time required by DELFIC. The SEER II output simulates DELFIC output reasonably well over a wide range of yields (1 kiloton to 30 megatons), and diverse wind structures. (Author)