Evaluation of the Fleet Numerical Weather Central Operational Primitive-Equation Model in Forecasting Extratropical Cyclogenesis

摘要

The paper describes an attempt to find systematic errors in the 12, 24 and 36-hour sea-level pressure forecasts of extratropical cyclogenesis produced by the operational five-layer primitive-equation model of the Fleet Numerical Weather Central, Monterey, California. The sample was extracted from the storm season spanning the period October 1971 through March 1972. Several systematic errors exist. When compared to the National Meteorological Center's six-layer primitive-equation model, Fleet Numerical Weather Central's model showed comparable or superior performance. (Modified author abstract)