Technological Forecasting: A Case Study of Long-Term Requirements for Rigid Airfield Pavement Systems.

摘要

The report presents the in-action example of the Delphi method of technological forcasting,which involves polling expert opinion. Experts in the planning,design,construction,and operation of airfields were polled to develop a forecast of technical capabilities in those areas. The results demonstrate how the wide range of information obtainable from expert opinion can be conveniently presented to planners. An analysis of the convergence of opinion after two rounds of questioning indicates that more than one round may be unnecessary to obtain the subjective type of information discussed in the forecast. (Author)