Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions on Continuous Variables.

摘要

Five procedures for assessing subjective probability distributions over continuous variables were compared using almanac questions as stimuli. The procedures varied on the uncertainty measures used (probabilities, odds, and odds on a logarithmic scale) and the type of response required from the subjects (uncertainty measure or value of the unknown quantity). The results showed the often used fractile procedures were inferior to procedures requiring probabilities or odds as the response from subjects. The results are also discussed in terms of the 'anchoring and adjustment' hypothesis.