Stochastic Simulations of Long-Range Forecasting Models for Less Developed Regions.

摘要

The report describes progress made to date on the development of methodologies for long-range forecasting of five central environmental descriptors--national power base, international trade, international alignment, internal instability, international conflict--for the less developed regions of Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. The report describes (1) the regions used in the analysis and their membership; (2) the strategic importance of the regions; (3) the differences between the regions and the developed nations (Europe) that required (a) reoperationalization of the central environmental descriptors and their predictors and (b) the structuring of the forecasting model; and (4) estimation techniques to be used to generate forecasting parameters to be used in stochastic simulations.