The Impact of the 1973 October War on Israeli Policy and Implications for U.S. Defense Policy.

摘要

The 1973 October War, and the events that followed, have had a profound impact on virtually all aspects of Israeli society, including Israel's defense posture, its diplomatic flexibility, and the political climate within which its key decision-makers operate. This report analyzes the impact of this war and its aftermath on Israeli defense, security and settlement policy within the context of the broad social, political and military environment existing in Israel, since these societal forces serve to shape and limit both Israeli policy and the demands placed on the United States as Israel's principal arms supplier and as agent for securing peace in the Middle East. Part One addresses the fundamental questions of: (1) how Israeli defense, security and settlement policy is in fact formulated; (2) which publics exert influence and how much; and (3) what tensions exist among these groups. Part Two describes and analyzes how the key publics, political parties and their fundamental policies serve to constrain Israel's political and military leadership with respect to present and future policy, especially a settlement with the Arab states. Part Three contains the analysis of the potential for U.S. policy-makers, based on the centrifugal forces operating in Israeli society and their impact on the political and military leadership.