The Application of Probability Calculations for Bird-Aircraft Strike Analyses and Predictions Using Radar.

摘要

A theoretical development is given for the calculation of binomial probability distribution functions for assessing the risk of bird hazards to aircraft using radar. A set of airspace cells is defined by beam geometry and pulse width and a given aircraft flight path, each with a determined number of birds. Each distribution function can be studied to determine the maximum risk and corresponding number of birds involved. The accumulative probability of bird strikes over an entire route can be determined by calculating the union of discrete cell probability sets.