Bayes Estimation of the Reliability of Series and Parallel Systems of Independent Exponential Components.

摘要

The present paper deals with some problems of estimating the reliability function of integrated systems, by point and confidence interval Bayes estimators. The Bayes point estimators are compared to the classical minimum variance and unbiased estimators in terms of their mean-squared-errors at different combinations of the parameters. The deviation of the exact Bayes confidence limits is discussed. Since it is difficult to determine the exact confidence limits, conservative small sample approximations and the most sufficient large sample normal approximations are derived. The coverage probabilities of the corresponding Bayes confidence intervals and the expected values of these Bayes lower confidence are estimated by simulation experiments. (Author)