Implications of Prospective Chinese Petroleum Developments to 1980.

摘要

This paper examines the development of the PRC's petroleum industry and subjects to critical analysis some of the more authoritative US academic, industry, and government projections of China's petroleum reserves, production, consumption, and exports, through 1980. The projections used in this paper strike a balance among conflicting estimates that is consistent with the data that have been released by Peking, with the limited foreign observations of China's petroleum industry, and with Peking's apparent plans for the utilization of its petroleum resources in the domestic economy and as the principal source of foreign exchange during the Fifth Five Year Plan (1976-80). Finally, the paper discusses the implications of China's projected petroleum prosperity for the country's economic development strategy, political stability, and international relations. (Author)