Interactive Decision Analysis Aids for Intelligence Analysts.

摘要

One strategy to improve the effectiveness of intelligence analysis is to provide decision makers with intelligence products which have been derived from a formal methodology such as decision analysis, and which include the logic of the methodology so that decision makers will better understand the reasoning of the intelligence analysis as well as their conclusions. In order to implement this strategy, however, methodological aids must be developed which are transparent to the analyst, and easy for him to use. The research described here represents an attempt to provide effective and easy to use decision analysis aids through the use of an interactive graphics computer. A series of prototype procedures have been developed which allow an intelligence analyst to make direct or indirect assessments of continuous probabilities, to calibrate his assessments with respect to discrete probabilities, to analyze the effects of future changes in force compositions on the strategic arms balance, and to discover the implications of intelligence information on policy decisions. Since the success fo these prototype procedures cannot be judged until intelligence analysts have had an opportunity to use them in their daily work, it is recommended that they be calculated in an operating environment. (Author)