Software Design for an Interactive Crisis Early Warning Prototype System.

摘要

This report describes in detail one component of the development of an integrated crisis warning system, the design and use of interactive computer software necessary for the development of such a system. The component was developed for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's Cybernetics Technology Office during the period from January 1 to September 30, 1976. Interactive software is an essential component of the development, testing, and evaluation of a user-oriented integrated system and of prototype crisis warning systems. The prototype system, as designed, tested, and developed, was comprised of (1) five quantitative international political indicators; (2) a forecasting capability which includes an international crisis object, a short-range retrospective goal, and an associative method; and (3) a sophisticated computer base endowed with efficient information storage, retrieval, processing, and display capabilities. The system has been tested for its ability or inability to forecast crises retrospectively. The demonstration system for the prototype is comprised of computer hardware and software necessary for the design, installation, and operation of interactive user-oriented systems.