Decision Analysis as an Element in an Operational Decision Aiding System (Phase III).

摘要

This paper reports the results of investigations undertaken in a continuing program to develop decision aids for Navy task force commanders. The focus in this contract phase was on the contribution of advanced techniques of decision analysis to action selection situations in the mission execution phase of task force operations. In particular, the investigations centered on testing and refining the prototype interactive computer graphic aid that was identified under a previous contract phase. A pilot test of this aid was conducted in order to establish the conceptual acceptability of the aid to operational Navy subjects and to identify areas for aid refinement. In support of the test, the antiship missile (ASM) threat was examined and modeled. Additional investigations were made into methods of enhancing the aid to consider more state hypotheses, to incorporate a model of time, to address a decision maker's attitude toward risk, and to establish a more generalized use of the aid. An initial attempt was also made to establish matching principles between the aid and decision situations existing in the naval tactical environment.