An Analysis and Comparison of Three Aircraft Attrition Models Probability of Hit by Antiaircraft Guns,

摘要

In recent years a number of studies and analyses have been conducted in which the expected attrition of U.S. Aircraft by enemy antiaircraft guns was evaluated by means of mathematical computer models. Several different models are currently in use,but it is known that they do not agree with one another. Accordingly, a decision has been made to carry out a test and evaluation program to measure probability of hit on U.S. fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft fired on by enemy antiraircraft guns,when the conditions of engagement are known. This program,known as HITVAL,consists of three elements,the first of which--the subject of this report--is an analysis and comparison of the models of interest. Its goals are: (1) to understand why the various models make predictions that do not agree with one another;and (2) to identify any obvious deficiencies that the models may have. The scope of this study is limited to engagements involving one aircraft and one gun. It is assumed that acquisition and identification of the target aircraft pose no problems whatsoever for the gun,and that the gun is not constrained by doctrine,logistics,or reliability. The models make no distinction between fixed-and rotary-wing aircraft. The models analyzed are:Army Material Systems Analysis Agency's Evades;Air Force Armament Laboratory's P001;and Institute for Defense Analyses' SIMFIND.