Estimation of Assessment Center Effectiveness in Merit Promotion Selection.

摘要

This study looks into the efficacy of use of an assessment center to predict the potential supervisory capability of a large number of professional non-supervisory civilian US Air Force employees who are assigned to organizations serviced by the same personnel office. Models are developed to represent the merit promotion selection process both in the absence of, and presence of, an assessment center, so that the expected payoff due to the operation of such a center may be estimated. This payoff is shown to be directly related to the overall proportion of employees who have true supervisory talent, to the validity of assessment center predictions, and to the accuracy with which selecting authorities can make these same sort of assessments in the absence of an assessment center.