A Methodology for Subjective Assessment of Probability Distributions.

摘要

In the initial stages of development of a weapon system it is impossible to know with complete certainty what the final outcome of the weapon system will be in terms of completion time, costs, and performance. The authors describe the following techniques for assessing subjective probability: Choice-Between-Gambles, Standard Lottery, Modified Churchman-Ackoff, Delphi, DeGroot Consensus, and Direct Estimation. The following criteria are being used: ease of application, adaptability and flexibility, reliability and validity, time, removal of bias, and miscellaneous. Based upon the content analysis, the Standard Lottery technique is the technique which best assesses the magnitude of uncertainty present in a given weapon systems's development effort.