Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

摘要

This report introduces Bayesian networks and describes how they can be used to model dredging decisions when uncertainties are present. Bayesian networks are efficient representations of joint probability distributions that can be used to perform statistical inference over a large number of random variables. An example application is developed and presented for a realistic estuarine dredging decision problem to demonstrate the method. The decision model is applied to analyze the value of obtaining additional information about selected variables that are sources of uncertainty in the decision.