Simulation and Analysis of a Tropical Cyclone Warning System.

摘要

An empirical mathematical model of the Tropical Cyclone Warning System was developed to investigate the potential benefits of improvement to the cyclone measurement system. It was found that the model indicated little sensitivity in warning 'quality' (defined in broad terms) to improvements in some aspects of the cyclone observation system. Despite this lack of sensitivity, the assumption of U.S. cost figures applicable to communities affected by cyclones produces a result favourable to participation in the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite program. Areas of weakness in the model have been identified as requiring attention in any continuing program of work in this field. (Author)