Bare Bones: A Method for Estimating Provisioning Budget Requirements in the Outyears.

摘要

Different methodologies and procedures are currently used by Project Managers/Commodity Commands in the Army to estimate initial provisioning funding requirements early in the development cycle of a system/end item. These estimates are to project support costs 1-5 years hence, but there has been a lack of quality, uniform methodology, and defensible rationale in the estimates. This paper develops a prototype methodology that reflects, early on, the quantities and costs that would be determined ultimately using the Standard Initial Provisioning model (SIP) just prior to the deployment of the end item in the budget execution year. An important pillar of the new procedure is a cumulative cost curve, generated from the provisioning costs of a small percentage of the total components, from which extrapolations are made of the total provisioning costs for the system. Selection of critical components is made by ranking parts by replacements per 100 end items x component unit price.