Selecting Analytic Approaches for Decision Situations (Revised Edition). Volume I. Overview of the Methodology.

摘要

The three volumes of this report present a conceptual framework within which experienced decision analysts can derive generalizations that match analytic techniques to decision situations and communicate those generalizations to decision makers and inexperienced analysts. The framework consists of a three-way taxonomy: decision situations, analytic options, and performance measures. The first component is a 'situation taxonomy,' listing about one hundred dimensions of a situation that might be relevant to a particular analytic choice. These dimensions include: the stakes involved in a decision; the reaction time available; and the clarity with which options, probable consequences, and values are perceived. The second component is an analysis taxonomy, according to which about one hundred decision-analytic choices can be located in an analytic option space. Dimensions of the analytic taxonomy include: how much decision analysis is undertaken, how it is used, what type of model structure is involved, and what technique for probability assessment or consequence evaluation is employed. The third component is a performance measure taxonomy, listing about thirty measures of effectiveness which can characterize the analytic options. The same taxonomy can also be used to describe a situation by expressing the relative importance of the performance measures in the situation.